CBAM Certificate Price Forecast 2025-2034: What Will Carbon Border Adjustment Cost?

Analysis of EU ETS carbon price trajectories and CBAM certificate cost projections for African exporters from 2025 to 2034.

Published April 2026·Last updated April 2026·carbonborderadjustment.co.za

The CBAM Price Equation

CBAM certificate prices are directly linked to the EU ETS carbon price: CBAM Certificate Price = Weekly average EU ETS auction price (EUR/tCO₂)

Price Forecast Scenarios 2025-2034

| Year | Bear Case | Base Case | Bull Case | |---|---|---|---| | 2026 | €60 | €75 | €100 | | 2028 | €70 | €90 | €125 | | 2030 | €80 | €110 | €160 | | 2032 | €90 | €130 | €190 | | 2034 | €100 | €150 | €210 |

Sources: Bloomberg NEF, ICIS, S&P Global Commodity Insights consensus forecasts.

What This Means for African Steel Exporters

Using the base case and South Africa's steel sector (1.8 tCO₂/t embedded emissions):

| Year | CBAM Rate | Cost per Tonne | Annual Cost (10,000t) | |---|---|---|---| | 2026 | 2.5% | €3.38 | €33,750 | | 2028 | 32% | €51.84 | €518,400 | | 2030 | 57% | €94.05 | €940,500 | | 2034 | 100% | €270.00 | €2,700,000 |

The Verification Multiplier

For a South African steel exporter with actual embedded emissions of 1.2 tCO₂/t (vs EU default 2.18 tCO₂/t), verification saves €90/t at 2034 rates — €900,000/year on 10,000 tonnes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current CBAM certificate price?

CBAM certificate prices mirror the EU ETS carbon price, which averaged approximately €65-75/tCO₂ in 2024-2025. Prices are set weekly based on EU ETS auction results.

What will CBAM certificates cost in 2030?

Base case forecasts project EU ETS prices of €100-110/tCO₂ by 2030. Combined with the 82% effective CBAM rate in 2030, this means African steel exporters could face CBAM costs of approximately €160-180 per tonne of steel.

How can African exporters reduce their CBAM certificate costs?

The most effective strategy is verification of actual embedded emissions. If your actual emissions are below the EU default value, you only pay CBAM on your actual emissions. For South African steel, this can reduce costs by 30-45%.

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